Thematic Research
Hydrogen and Stupidity
When Expectation Meets Reality
Industry background research available to all professional investors under MiFID II as a minor non-monetary benefit
Hydrogen has long been caught between extremes — once hailed as the universal solution to decarbonisation, it is now too often dismissed as having little role. In reality, hydrogen remains an essential component of the decarbonisation toolkit, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. While near-term project development has been uneven, effective demand is already emerging in fuels such as ammonia and methanol, as well as in industrial processes, biofuel upgrading, and power system balancing. Policy support across the EU, US, and UK is expected to further accelerate momentum.
Policy-Driven Demand
EU mandates require 42% of industrial hydrogen to be from green sources by 2030, driving significant new demand.
Hydrogen-Derived Fuels
Ammonia and methanol are gaining traction in shipping and aviation, with more than 200 methanol-fuelled vessels already on the water or on order.
Biofuel Upgrading
The integration of hydrogen into biofuel production can substantially increase output, creating a meaningful new avenue of demand.
Realistic Applications
Hydrogen cars are not viable, but heavy trucking, industrial heat, and niche fuel cell uses show strong potential.
Balancing the Grid
Low-utilisation electrolysis can make hydrogen cost-effective in balancing power systems with high renewable penetration.
Long-Term Outlook
Validated use cases support an estimated 447Mt of annual hydrogen demand by 2050, underpinned by large-scale electrolyser deployment and policy support.
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Hydrogen has long been caught between extremes — once hailed as the universal solution to decarbonisation, it is now too often dismissed as having little role. In reality, hydrogen remains an essential component of the decarbonisation toolkit, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. While near-term project development has been uneven, effective demand is already emerging in fuels such as ammonia and methanol, as well as in industrial processes, biofuel upgrading, and power system balancing. Policy support across the EU, US, and UK is expected to further accelerate momentum.
Key Takeaways:
Policy-Driven Demand
EU mandates require 42% of industrial hydrogen to be from green sources by 2030, driving significant new demand.
Hydrogen-Derived Fuels
Ammonia and methanol are gaining traction in shipping and aviation, with more than 200 methanol-fuelled vessels already on the water or on order.
Biofuel Upgrading
The integration of hydrogen into biofuel production can substantially increase output, creating a meaningful new avenue of demand.
Realistic Applications
Hydrogen cars are not viable, but heavy trucking, industrial heat, and niche fuel cell uses show strong potential.
Balancing the Grid
Low-utilisation electrolysis can make hydrogen cost-effective in balancing power systems with high renewable penetration.
Long-Term Outlook
Validated use cases support an estimated 447Mt of annual hydrogen demand by 2050, underpinned by large-scale electrolyser deployment and policy support.
Register on our portal to access our research papers.
Hydrogen has now found its niche as an essential component in the decarbonisation toolbox